Rising Concerns Over Bird Flu’s Potential to Combine with Seasonal Flu and Trigger a Pandemic

Seasonal Flu and Bird Flu: Pandemic Risk Concerns Rising | Healthcare 360 Magazine

Humans and Pigs May Facilitate Viral Mixing: H5N1 Vaccination Key to Prevention

The H5N1 avian influenza virus is currently spreading through U.S. dairy cow herds, with cases reported among farm workers exposed to infected animals. In addition to poultry, the virus has recently been detected in a pig on a farm in Oregon. As seasonal flu season approaches, health experts are raising concerns that interactions between the bird flu virus and seasonal flu could increase the potential for a dangerous mutation or hybrid virus.

So far, there have been at least 39 human cases of H5N1 in the U.S. this year. States affected include California, Colorado, Washington, Michigan, Texas, and Missouri. Most cases have been mild, with symptoms like eye infections and respiratory issues, and have occurred in people who had close contact with infected animals. Officials have ruled out person-to-person transmission, but the increase in human cases—particularly among farm workers—has experts worried about the possibility of a more extensive outbreak.

The Threat of Mutation and Reassortment

Influenza viruses mutate regularly through a process known as genetic drift, which is why new flu vaccines are needed each year. When a significant mutation occurs, known as a genetic shift, the virus’s properties can change dramatically, potentially leading to a pandemic. Beyond mutations, influenza viruses also undergo reassortment, a process where two viruses swap genetic material if they infect the same cell. Reassortment can produce viruses with a mix of features from both parent strains, sometimes creating more transmissible and severe versions.

A virus that combines bird flu and seasonal flu traits could theoretically emerge if a person or animal were infected with both strains simultaneously. While this would increase the risk, experts say reassortment alone is not enough to create a pandemic virus. Certain mutations would still be required for the virus to spread efficiently among humans. Currently, no evidence of these mutations has been detected in human cases of H5N1.

If such mutations were to develop, however, reassortment could help move the virus from the eye (where infections in farm workers have often been detected) to the respiratory tract. Pigs are especially susceptible to both human and avian influenzas, making them ideal hosts for viral mixing. In the recent case in Oregon, the infected pig lived on a farm with other animals, but the virus’s transmission to other animals has not been confirmed, and the five pigs on the farm have been euthanized to prevent further spread.

Potential for Spread in Commercial Farms

Should H5N1 spread in commercial hog farms, the likelihood of reassortment with seasonal flu would increase. In pigs, reassortment occurs frequently, and seasonal human flu viruses have previously spread to pigs. In such settings, the mixing of avian and human flu viruses could result in a more virulent strain.

The origin of the H5N1 virus in cattle remains unclear, and scientists are investigating how it began to spread among dairy herds. Current evidence suggests a low risk of reassortment between human flu viruses and H5N1 in cattle, as human flu strains do not typically infect cows. However, experts caution that if pigs or people contract both viruses, there is a chance a hybrid virus could emerge.

Precautions and H5N1 Vaccination Considerations

To reduce the risk of reassortment, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is advising farm workers to get seasonal flu shots. Although there is a stockpile of H5N1 vaccination these have not been distributed widely, partly due to concerns about low public trust in vaccines. Health officials indicate that the threshold for deploying these vaccines would depend on factors like evidence of sustained human transmission or an increase in the virus’s severity.

The CDC’s principal deputy director recently said that the decision to distribute vaccines would involve evaluating multiple factors, such as person-to-person spread and heightened virulence, neither of which has been observed yet. Currently, people infected with H5N1 and those in close contact are receiving antiviral treatments.H5N1 vaccination is the best way to defeat H5N1 Flu

Some researchers have called for cattle H5N1 vaccination and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has approved vaccine safety trials for this purpose. Reducing viral spread in cattle, particularly through milk, could benefit milk production and reduce the risk to farm workers and the public.

While the chances of a worker contracting both H5N1 and seasonal flu are low, experts caution that risk could rise as flu season intensifies. Hundreds of humans have been infected with avian flu in the last 25 years without it spreading widely among people. However, the uptick in human cases raises concern, as each infection offers the virus a new opportunity to adapt. With each interaction, whether through farm animals or a potential reassortment with human flu, the risk of a human-compatible avian flu strain—capable of person-to-person transmission—remains on health officials’ radar as a potential threat.

Ears without it spreading widely among people. However, the uptick in human cases raises concern, as each infection offers the virus a new opportunity to adapt. With each interaction, whether through farm animals or a potential reassortment with human flu, the risk of a human-compatible avian flu strain—capable of person-to-person transmission—remains on health officials’ radar as a potential threat.

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